The North American Electric Reliability Corporation’s 2026 Summer Reliability Assessment finds that record resource additions have strengthened readiness for the summer season, even as elevated risks remain in some areas. The assessment was released on May 19.
“The pace of change across the North American grid continues to accelerate, but industry is working diligently to construct the necessary generation and transmission needed to power the future,” said John Moura, director of Reliability Assessments and Performance Analysis.
“We are seeing a record-breaking amount of on-peak capacity being interconnected in a single year strengthening system readiness for summer conditions. However, increasing risks for early fall and winter seasons reinforce the need for additional firm and dispatchable resources to maintain reliability and meet rising electricity demand.”
All areas are projected to have adequate resources for normal summer conditions, NERC said in the assessment.
This is due in part to the large expansion of bulk power system resource additions, including a substantial influx of solar and battery and some new natural gas-fired generators over the past year, NERC said.
Summer resource capacity has risen by over 58 GW, which is more than three times the amount of resource growth observed going into the prior summer. These additions are helping strengthen reserves across many areas, it said.
Despite the improved outlook, the assessment identifies ongoing challenges that could strain the grid this summer. Accelerated demand, rapid growth of large loads, periods of low wind output, and the overlap of early summer heat with maintenance outages may challenge reliability.
A few areas face elevated risk of supply shortfalls or have locally constrained zones during more extreme summer conditions:
• In NPCC-New England, firm import commitments have declined since last year resulting in lower operating reserves and increased reliance on non-firm supplies from neighboring systems to meet high demand.
• In Texas, resource additions and lower demand have improved the area-wide outlook, but the Far West zone remains at risk for load disruption when solar and wind output is low and transmission constraints limit the flow of imports into the local area.
• In the SaskPower area, a higher demand forecast has reduced operating reserves, potentially causing operators to seek non-firm power transfers from neighbors or take other operating mitigations to manage high demand or unanticipated generator outages.
• In WECC-Northwest, persistent drought conditions, rising demand, and a drop in existing resources could increase vulnerability during more extreme summer conditions.
NERC’s recommendations, described fully in the report, outline actions to help reduce reliability risks, including reviewing operating plans and outage coordination procedures, preparing for extreme weather and potential generator outages and ensuring sufficient resource availability.
The recommendations also emphasize planning for region-specific challenges, including low wind conditions, reduced hydro availability and output, and large computational load disconnects, while encouraging continued coordination across industry, regulators, and policymakers.
NERC’s reliability assessment process is a coordinated evaluation between the NERC Reliability Assessment Subcommittee, the Regional Entities, and NERC using demand and resource projections from the assessment areas.
The assessment is intended to inform industry leaders, planners, operators, and regulatory bodies as they prepare to ensure bulk power system reliability for the upcoming summer period.
