The Northwest Power and Conservation Council recently released a new initial forecast showing a range of potential electricity demand growth in the Pacific Northwest over the next two decades.
The Pacific Northwest – which the Council defines as Oregon, Idaho, Washington, and Western Montana – has consumed approximately 22,000 aMW (average megawatts) of electricity per year for the last several years.
The forecast projects annual energy demand growth to reach between 31,000-44,000 aMW by 2046, varying by trajectory. In February 2025, the Northwest electricity grid hit a winter peak of approximately 35,500 MW, which was an increase over the previous winter peak of 35,100 MW in 2023.
During a heatwave in July 2024, the region reached a summer peak of 33,300 MW. By 2046, the forecast trajectories project peak demands ranging between 47,000-60,000 MW.
Read the full analysis here.
The Council urged members of the media and the public to exercise caution in interpreting this analysis, because they show higher levels of electricity consumption in peak demand and in annual energy than will actually occur.
This is because this load forecast intentionally doesn’t account for the cost-effective energy efficiency, demand response, and rooftop solar that could be included in the resource strategy for the Council’s next power plan, called the Ninth Power Plan, NPCC said. These resources flatten peaks and reduce electricity demand.
For example, unmanaged electric-vehicle charging that often occurs in after-work hours can coincide with other peak hour power needs. Demand response programs could manage the charging in several different ways that have less impact on power system peaks – such as after midnight.
"Today’s initial load forecast assumes unmanaged charging, leaving the demand response potential of managed charging as an option for Power Division staff’s computer models to choose when they analyze different resource strategies for building out the Northwest electricity grid in the future," NPCC noted.
Once the Council decides how much cost-effective efficiency, rooftop solar, and demand response to include in its resource strategy, staff will re-run the load forecast to get the final version to include in the Ninth Plan.
The Ninth Power Plan will assure the region of Washington, Montana, Idaho, and Oregon of an adequate, efficient, economical, and reliable power supply.
The Council will develop this plan through extensive public process and regional engagement over the next two years.
Council staff intend to have a draft power plan ready for public review and comment by July 2026, with a final version adopted by the end of that year.
The demand forecast analysis captures a range of trajectories across sectors of electricity demand in the Pacific Northwest.
The largest sources of future demand growth will be residential and commercial buildings, data centers and chip fabrication facilities, electric vehicles, and hydrogen production.
The Council’s forecast covers high, medium, or low forecast for each of these sectors, resulting in five different pathways for how electricity demand could materialize in the Northwest over the next 20 years.
The Council’s power planners have been forecasting load growth for the Pacific Northwest’s electricity grid for over 40 years, and this is the most complex, data-intensive, and sophisticated load forecast produced to date.
Power system analysts used upgraded computer modeling capabilities to produce annual, monthly, and hourly forecasts of load between 2025-2046 for the Northwest as well as for 13 individual utilities’ balancing authorities in the region.
They also included data from 27 weather stations in Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Montana, which allowed staff to forecast future changes related to weather and climate conditions and how that could affect electricity demand.
Over the past several months, staff checked the results of each sector’s forecast with the Council’s Demand Forecast Advisory Committee consisting of regional utilities, regulators, major industries, technical experts, and public interest groups.
“Thanks to many months of work by Power Division staff, collaboration with regional partners, and our new computer modeling capabilities, we now have a deep understanding of the potential future energy needs of our region,” said Power Planning Director Jennifer Light. “This will help us develop the cost-effective resource strategy that will be robust across future load growth trajectories, while ensuring the Pacific Northwest’s power grid continues to be adequate, efficient, economical, and reliable over the next two decades. We won’t take on this task alone. We invite and encourage public participation and collaboration from across the Northwest as we plan for the future of our power system throughout 2025 and 2026.”
Established when Congress passed the Northwest Power Act in 1980, the Council represents the four Columbia River Basin states of Oregon, Washington, Idaho, and Montana.
The Northwest Power Act directs the Council towards three goals: to ensure the region has an adequate, efficient, economical, and reliable power supply; to protect, mitigate, and enhance fish and wildlife impacted by the hydroelectric system in the Columbia River Basin; and to do so with broad public participation.
