The U.S. Department of Energy on July 7 released a report in which it said that with projected load growth, retirements increase the risk of power outages by 100 times in 2030.
DOE said that the report fulfills Section 3(b) of President Trump’s Executive Order, Strengthening The Reliability And Security Of The United States Electric Grid, by delivering a uniform methodology to identify at-risk regions and guide Federal reliability interventions.
DOE in a news release that its analysis “shows that, if current retirement schedules and incremental additions remain unchanged, most regions will face unacceptable reliability risks within five years and the Nation’s electrical power grid will be unable to meet expected demand for AI, data centers, manufacturing and industrialization while keeping the cost of living low for all Americans.”
DOE said its analysis shows that, “if current retirement schedules and incremental additions remain unchanged, most regions will face unacceptable reliability risks within five years and the Nation’s electrical power grid will be unable to meet expected demand for AI, data centers, manufacturing and industrialization while keeping the cost of living low for all Americans. Staying on the present course would undermine U.S. economic growth, national security, and leadership in emerging technologies.”
It also said that grid growth must match the pace of AI innovation. Electricity demand from AI-driven data centers and advanced manufacturing is rising at a record pace, DOE said. “The magnitude and speed of projected load growth cannot be met with existing approaches to load addition and grid management. Radical change is needed to unleash the transformative potential of innovation.”
DOE also said that with projected load growth, retirements increase the risk of power outages by 100 times in 2030.
“Allowing 104 GW of firm generation to retire by 2030—without timely replacement—could lead to significant outages when weather conditions do not accommodate wind and solar generation. Modeling shows annual outage hours could increase from single digits today to more than 800 hours per year. Such a surge would leave millions of households and businesses vulnerable.”
DOE’s analysis said the 104 GW of plant retirements are replaced by 209 GW of new generation by 2030; however, only 22 GW comes from firm baseload generation sources. “Even assuming no retirements, the model found outage risk in several regions rises more than 30-fold, proving the queue alone cannot close the dependable-capacity deficit.”
DOE said that traditional peak-hour tests to evaluate resource adequacy do not sufficiently account for growing dependence on neighboring grids.
“At a minimum, modern methods of evaluating resource adequacy need to incorporate frequency, magnitude, and duration of power outages, move beyond exclusively analyzing peak load time periods, and develop integrated models to enable proper analysis of increasing reliance on neighboring grids.”
DOE’s report identifies regions most vulnerable to outages under various weather and retirement scenarios and offers capacity targets needed to restore acceptable reliability.
The methodology also informs the potential use of DOE’s emergency authority under Section 202(c) of the Federal Power Act, it said.
