The Pennsylvania Public Utility Commission this month released an independent analysis warning that rapidly growing electricity demand – driven largely by data center development – could create serious reliability risks across Pennsylvania and the broader region unless electricity supply keeps pace with that growth.
The analysis, conducted by Synapse Energy Economics, examined whether sufficient electric resources will be available to reliably serve customers as demand grows and existing generation retires.
The study found that based on current load forecast from regional power grid operator PJM and assuming no additional policy actions, the regional grid fails to meet PJM's reliability planning standard from 2027 through 2030, the PUC said.
By 2030, the modeled reliability risk is nearly six times worse than PJM's planning standard.
PJM plans the regional electric system around a longstanding reliability standard designed to limit potential electricity shortages to approximately one event every 10 years.
"The Synapse analyses show how dramatically that risk could change if electricity demand grows faster than available supply," the PUC saic.
Under the Reference scenario, which is the most likely scenario based on the current environment, reliability risk in 2030 is nearly six times PJM's planning standard.
Under a more severe scenario combining higher electricity demand with constrained development of new generation, the model projects an expectation of more than 13 potential loss-of-load events per year starting in 2030 – compared with the traditional planning standard of one event every 10 years.
Those results do not predict that customers will experience a specific number of outages. Rather, they illustrate the magnitude of the reliability risk if unprecedented increases in electricity demand significantly outpace the resources available to serve it.
Data centers are a major factor in that equation. In the study's severe scenario, projected new data center demand across PJM between 2029 and 2030 alone exceeds the current annual electricity demand of the entire Commonwealth of Pennsylvania.
The Commission has already taken several steps to address large-load growth and protect existing customers.
In May, the PUC established a model large-load tariff designed to ensure that customers requiring 50 megawatts or more of electricity bear the costs they add to the electric system rather than shifting those costs to other ratepayers.
The Commission is also implementing Act 45 of 2025, which provides an additional layer of accountability for Pennsylvania utility load forecasts submitted to PJM – an increasingly important “double check” as data center proposals drive projections of future electricity demand, it said.
Additionally, the PUC is supporting Gov. Josh Shapiro's recent Executive Order addressing data center development and has taken steps related to PJM's proposed Reliability Backstop Procurement (RBP), including directing Pennsylvania electric distribution companies seeking qualifying RBP offsets to submit information to the Commission for review.
The Commission also unanimously adopted a motion by Vice Chair Kimberly Barrow addressing PJM's proposed RBP and Interim Resource Adequacy Service. That action reinforced the Commission's position that during electricity shortages, existing customers must be protected ahead of newly-connecting large loads such as data centers.
The Commission emphasized that Pennsylvania's larger energy challenge cannot be solved by one agency, one report or one policy initiative.
