The 2026 Northwest Regional Forecast from the Pacific Northwest Utilities Conference Committee shows utilities are adding thousands of megawatts of cleaner generation and scaling demand-side programs, but overall, the timing and magnitude is not keeping pace with the need.
Details on the forecast were released on April 27 by the PNUCC.
The timeline covered by the forecast runs from August 2026 through July 2036.
“The Northwest region has shifted from a position of surplus electricity towards not having enough power at critical times,” said PNUCC Executive Director Crystal Ball. “The gap between supply and demand widens over the 10-year forecast, and closing the gap will require urgent, coordinated action including accelerating resource procurement, expanding transmission and scaling demand-side capabilities.”
Key Findings from the 2026 Forecast are as follows:
- Load Growth Continues: Projected regional electricity demand remains consistent with recent PNUCC forecasts and could increase by approximately 30% over the next decade.
- Regional Capacity and Energy Gaps Remain Substantial: Utilities are adding new generating resources, but development is not keeping pace with projected demand growth. After accounting for coal retirements and exits, net capacity gains are modest, reinforcing the importance of resource mix and performance characteristics, not just total installed capacity. As resource contributions become more interdependent, maintaining reliability will require both long-duration firm capacity and stronger regional coordination.
- Resource Mix is Evolving: A substantial buildout of new generating resources is taking shape, including an increasing mix of wind, solar and battery, as well as nuclear upgrades and natural gas. Emerging technologies, including advanced geothermal, next generation nuclear, longduration energy storage and carbon sequestration, offer future potential but remain in early stages of development, with limited commercial deployment.
- Demand-Side Strategies Are Critical: Energy efficiency, demand response, distributed resource aggregation and load flexibility are all critical tools that reduce or shift electricity use and support reliability. However, these tools are not sufficient on their own to eliminate the projected supply gap. Utilities and customers will need strong collaboration, along with clear frameworks for how these tools are planned, valued and counted on.
- Continued Investment and Regional Coordination Are Necessary: Maintaining reliability will require continued investment, long-term planning and stronger regional coordination in an increasingly complex and interdependent system. Aligning planning assumptions with operational realities—and targeting investments toward the highest-impact resources and infrastructure—will be essential.
- Solutions Are Highly Utility-Specific: Each utility faces different realities based on load growth, resource portfolios, transmission access, state policy and operational constraints, shaping the solutions available to meet demand reliably.
PNUCC’s 2026 Forecast concludes with several near-term priorities for collaborative focus and underscores that without coordinated action, peak periods will continue to strain the system.
"Decisions made in the near term will be critical in shaping the region’s ability to maintain reliable and affordable electric service and will determine how effectively the Northwest navigates this transition," it said.
The updated Forecast tracks power system trends, including shifts in demand, resource changes and emerging technologies.
The Executive Summary and full report are posted on PNUCC's website.
PNUCC is a not-for-profit trade association of consumer-owned and investor-owned utilities and other power industry partners that share a common interest in the efficacy and reliability of the Northwest power system.
