In 2026, half of the coal-fired generation capacity in the U.S. will have closed since it peaked in 2011, according to a new report from the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis.
This is now the earliest date for this milestone since IEEFA began closely tracking coal-plant retirements, and it has moved up despite high prices for natural gas and construction delays for renewables largely caused by pandemic-induced supply disruptions.
By another measure -- actual electricity generation -- the U.S. has cut coal use even faster, producing less than 50% of coal’s 2011 power level in both 2020 and 2022.
Based on current announcements from utilities, coal capacity will fall to 159 gigawatts by the end of 2026, down from 318 GW in 2011, IEEFA said.
With more than 80 GW of power plants set to stop using coal between 2023 and the end of 2030 -- a figure that includes mostly closures, with a limited number of conversions from coal to gas -- total coal-fired capacity will fall to just 116 GW by 2030.
“And actual coal use is likely to continue falling even faster, as aging units face higher operation and maintenance costs, and utilities increasingly favor the responsiveness of gas generation and battery storage to complement the variable output from solar and wind, both of which continue to be built at a rapid clip,” it said.
By the end of this decade, more than 200 GW of the 318 GW of peak coal-fired power will have been retired, based on current announcements. By then, coal consumption by the power sector could fall to just half of this year’s expected level, to about 200 million tons, IEEFA estimates.
Click here for the report.
