The 2024 update to the Pacific Northwest Utilities Conference Committee’s Northwest Regional Forecast reveals more momentum for the surge in demand for electricity in the Pacific Northwest, PNUCC said on May 2.
The increase is attributed to factors such as data center development, hightech manufacturing growth and the continued trend toward electrification.
The forecast projects electricity consumption could increase from about 23,700 average megawatts (aMW) in 2024 to about 31,100 aMW in 2033 (an increase of 7,400 aMW), which is an increase in demand of over 30% in the next 10 years.
Last year’s forecast projected demand could rise by 24% in 10 years.
This pace of expected growth is remarkable compared to the region’s more modest growth over the past 40 years, PNUCC said.
An increase of 7,400 aMW is equivalent to having to meet the electricity demand of about seven cities the size of Seattle, it noted.
“The dual challenge of extraordinary growth in consumption and the transition to lower carbon-emitting generation resources translates to a tremendous and urgent need to upgrade the region’s electricity infrastructure -- including expanding transmission capacity and diversifying power supplies as well as accelerating the adoption of advanced grid technologies,” the PNUCC said.
“While individual utilities have unique needs, there is a shared commitment to collaboration in developing an unprecedented amount of new generation in the next 10 years. This will require intense coordinated planning along with strong public support to assure an adequate, reliable power supply during the region’s transition to a cleaner energy future,” said PNUCC Executive Director Crystal Ball.
Pacific Northwest utilities are investing in cleaner generating resources and accelerating resource acquisitions to keep up with planned retirements and projected demand increases, PNUCC noted.
Over the next decade, utilities have identified an unprecedented amount of about 29,000 megawatts installed nameplate capacity of new resources to meet customer energy and capacity needs.
The current total Northwest utilities generating resources installed nameplate capacity is 55,600 MW.
In addition to the annual assessment, PNUCC, a not-for-profit trade association, brings together Pacific Northwest consumer-owned and investor-owned utilities and other power industry partners to enhance coordination and build understanding in areas such as resource adequacy, electricity markets and transmission planning.
PNUCC said that additional key takeaways from the 2024 forecast are as follows:
Using Energy Efficiently
Energy efficiency and demand response programs continue to be a critical component of an adequate power supply by helping lower energy use and reduce peak demand, the PNUCC said.
The forecast projects summer demand response to double, reducing the region’s one hour peak by about 500 MW in 2024 to over 1,000 MW in 2033.
Winter demand response is stepping up quickly as well. The forecast projects a winter demand response increase from over 200 MW in 2024 to close to 600 MW in 2033.
The Resource Mix Matters
Hydroelectric dams play an important role in the regional electricity system providing over 33,000 MW of installed nameplate capacity.
They generate clean power and store water in large reservoirs behind the dams that can be used to dependably meet seasonal and peak demands, PNUCC noted.
With the growth of wind and solar power, utilities are starting to add in energy storage technologies, such as lithium-ion batteries, to increase the ability to store surplus energy and supply it to the grid during periods of high demand, or periods when wind and solar generation decreases.
The ability to provide power during a peak load event depends on the time of year, type of generating resource, its geographic location, access to fuel, access to transmission, and other factors that impact the capability to generate and deliver power at any given time.
To maintain reliability today, Pacific Northwest utilities rely on the capacity of hydro, nuclear, coal and natural gas.
“The path to reducing carbon emissions will need to include clean energy solutions beyond traditional resources and short duration batteries,” the report said.
Transmission Expansion is Essential
“The ability to build enough generation and acquire enough capacity is one thing; the ability to deliver it is another,” the report said.
Expanding the capacity of the transmission system “will be critical for reliably serving the growing load and delivering more power from where it is produced to where it is needed,” the report argued.
“A more connected grid across the West will enhance access to diverse energy resources, help balance the variability of demand and supply and bolster grid resiliency.
Utilities are Prioritizing Resource Adequacy and Reliability
“Utilities are focused on ensuring there is sufficient and reliable supply to meet demand, particularly during extreme weather events that are increasing in frequency due to climate change,” the report said.
The multi-day cold snap in January 2024 “is an example of the region coming dangerously close to having inadequate supply,” the report said.
Solutions for ensuring resource adequacy include extending the usefulness of existing infrastructure, like converting coal plants to natural gas plants, and exploring and investing in emerging technologies, the PNUCC noted.
“Long duration energy storage, clean hydrogen, advanced nuclear and other emerging technologies do not yet show up in the forecast, but they could profoundly reshape the future regional energy landscape,” it added.
PNUCC Annually Provides Assessment
PNUCC annually provides an assessment of the Pacific Northwest electric utility industry from a regional perspective.
This effort is captured in the updated forecast, a longstanding resource that tracks power system trends, including shifts in demand, resource changes and emerging technologies.
The Executive Summary of the Forecast, as well as the full report, can be found at: https://www.pnucc.org/systemplanning/northwest-regional-forecast/.
