Total U.S. electricity generation is expected to increase 50% from 2024 to 2050. As new generation sources are added, the cost for securing supply from different generation sources is expected to change.
Projected Change in Fuel Price by Type, 2025-2050
Note: Coal, natural gas, and existing nuclear projected costs are based on the cost of the fuel itself. Other fuel sources are measured in levelized cost of energy (LCOE), which includes capital expenditures and operating costs. Projections are based off the dollars per megawatt-hour in 2022 dollars.
Projected Change from 2025 Costs
| RESOURCE | 2030 | 2035 | 2040 | 2045 | 2050 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural Gas | +8.5% | +43% | +36.4% | +45.2% | +41.1% |
| Coal | -7.8% | -19.3% | -15.2% | -15.2% | -2.88% |
| Existing Nuclear | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
| Small Nuclear | N/A | -12.8% | -23.4% | -29.8% | -34% |
| Large Nuclear | N/A | -2.4% | -9.5% | -14.3% | -20.2% |
| Utility-Scale Solar | -21.1% | -42.1% | -47.4% | -52.6% | -57.9% |
| Onshore Wind | -11.1% | -14.8% | -22.2% | -25.9% | -29.6% |
| Offshore Wind | -22.1% | -37.5% | -40.4% | -42.3% | -44.2% |
| Hydro | 0% | 0% | 0% | -3.9% | -3.9% |
| Geothermal | -5.8% | -10.1% | -11.6% | -13% | -14.5% |
 | The average cost of utility-scale solar is expected to drop nearly 60%. |
 | The average price of natural gas is projected to increase by 41%. |
 | The price of coal is expected to drop almost 20% by 2035 and then increase again through 2050. |
 | The drops in utility-scale solar and onshore wind project these sources to be among the most cost-effective fuel sources by 2050. ($16/MWh for solar and $19/MWh for wind) |
 | The capital cost for utility-scale battery storage is projected to decrease 51%, from $320/kWh in 2025 to $157/kWh in 2050. |
Sources:
Electricity Annual Technology Baseline, National Laboratory of the Rockies, July 2024.
Annual Energy Outlook 2025, Energy Information Administration, April 2025.
