The National Renewable Energy Laboratory estimates that distribution transformer capacity may need to increase 160 percent to 260 percent by 2050 compared to 2021 levels to meet residential, commercial, industrial, and transportation energy demands.
The demand increase is largely driven by aging transformers and electrification. NREL is also examining potential demand increases from extreme weather events and utility undergrounding and resilience programs that use various types of transformers, NREL said on March 4.
This analysis is based on estimating the peak demand that would need to be met by distribution transformers, which considers the increased electricity demand across the economy from scenarios outlined in NREL's Electrification Futures Study.
NREL researcher Killian McKenna and NREL colleagues are leading an effort funded by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Electricity and Office of Policy to quantify the long-term demand for distribution transformers.
DOE has charged NREL with developing additional analysis capabilities to assess future transformer demand, including an examination of load growth, new customers, replacement needs, and resilience investments.
DOE will share this analysis with stakeholders to help them better understand important load metrics, such as how increased electrification affects peak electricity demand, to inform distribution planning decisions.
To facilitate further action, DOE will introduce these insights in an ongoing solutions-oriented convening underway with power sector stakeholders, manufacturers, and federal partners, all of whom are focused on identifying and implementing practical actions that will help to ease the supply-demand mismatch for distribution transformers.
NREL's ongoing analysis efforts will help inform these collaborative discussions by providing comprehensive data that has the power to be a grid game-changer.
NREL noted that it has also identified increasing demand for step-up transformers, which are used to convert low-voltage electrical generation into high-voltage electricity for long-distance transmission. This type of transformer is needed to integrate wind and solar farms onto the power grid by adjusting voltages, improving efficiency, and enhancing grid reliability.
NREL has posted on its website additional details about the Major Drivers of Long-Term Distribution Transformer Demand.
