In its Short-Term Energy Outlook released on Sept. 9, the U.S. Energy Administration forecasts that the U.S. will use record amounts of electricity.
"We expect electricity sales in the United States to total 4,135 billion kilowatthours (BkWh) in 2026 and 4,211 BkWh in 2027, driven by data center development and increased manufacturing activity in the commercial and industrial sectors," EIA said. "Despite a pause in connecting new data center projects in Texas to the grid, the West South Central region accounts for the largest share of total electricity sales growth in our forecast."
"We forecast that commercial sector electricity sales will increase by 3.3% in 2026 and 2.7% in 2027, accounting for 63% and 56% of the increase in electricity sales in those years," it said.
EIA forecasts industrial sector electricity sales will rise 1.6% in 2026 and 2.6% in 2027, accounting for an additional 22% and 36% of increased electricity sales, respectively.
"Although Texas has paused the connection of new data centers to the grid to facilitate a regulatory audit of proposed data center projects, the West South Central region still accounts for the largest regional share of growth in total electricity sales, totaling nearly 20% of nationwide growth in 2026 and nearly 40% in 2027," it said.
With natural gas generation in the United States rising by 2% in 2026 and 1% in 2027, coal generation falls by 8% in 2026 and 6% in 2027.
As wind and utility-scale solar capacity continues to be added to the grid, we expect solar generation to grow by 21% in 2026 and by 18% in 2027, while wind generation grows 7% in 2026 and 5% in 2027.
We expect the PJM interconnection to account for nearly 45% of the growth in total U.S. generation in our forecast, with natural gas generation driving the increase in 2026 and natural gas, coal, and wind generation driving the increase in 2027," EIA said.
Meanwhile, the growth in solar generation is concentrated in the parts of the grid managed by the Electric Reliability Council of Texas and the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO).
In 2026, EIA expects added solar generation of 18 BkWh in ERCOT and 13 BkWh in MISO, followed by an additional 20 BkWh in ERCOT and 11 BkWh in MISO in 2027.
