Wood Mackenzie on Jan. 26 reported that natural gas freeze-offs reached a single-day high of 17 billion cubic feet (BCF) on January 25, approaching the record 18 BCF seen during Winter Storm Uri as an intense Arctic weather system sweeps across the United States.
Current freeze-off and cold weather impacts are estimated at approximately 13.5 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd), with Lower 48 production at approximately 95.8 bcfd. The cumulative freeze-off for the 2025-2026 winter season has now reached 58.3 bcf.
"Freeze-off estimates for January 25th were revised upward, with North Louisiana estimates increasing by approximately 3 bcfd as temperatures at Shreveport reached a high of only 28°F and a low of 21°F following hailing conditions on January 24th," said Randall Collum Jr., P.E., Senior Vice President at Wood Mackenzie. "In response, pipe nominations were adjusted downward across nearly all pipelines, most notably with NG3 seeing a reduction of approximately 585 million cubic feet per day (mmcfd) and Tiger pipeline declining by approximately 365 mmcfd. Additionally, Gulf Run, Tiger and TETCO issued underperformance notices at several points for gas day January 25th, further reflecting the operational challenges stemming from the severe weather conditions."
The freeze-offs have contributed to a historic jump in natural gas prices, driven by a dramatic shift in weather forecasts and the unique characteristics of this cold weather event, Wood Mackenzie said.
"This cold weather event differs significantly from last year," explained Eric McGuire, Director of Research – Commodities, Trading, & Data Analytics at Wood Mackenzie. "This cold event is much more intense and shorter-lived. The cold is also reaching much further south than we normally see in the U.S. This has resulted in large freeze-offs and intense spikes in demand, particularly in the south where Henry Hub—the futures price for natural gas—is located. We are seeing freeze-offs reach just over our forecast of 16 BCF and just shy of the Winter Storm Uri high."
McGuire noted that the price surge also reflects broader market dynamics:
"Coming into January, temperatures were looking significantly warmer than normal and production levels were strong. As a result, prices had dropped approximately $2 from their December highs. In the period of a single week, the entire outlook flipped due to changes in the weather forecast. On top of freeze-offs, the U.S. currently faces large 'deliverability' issues in Q1. While we theoretically have enough gas in underground storage to meet these supply shortfalls, these shortfalls can exceed what the market can withdraw from storage in a single day in some regions. This helps explain why prices have risen so much in the February contract, since February still has moderate risks of cold fronts coming through."
