The PJM Interconnection 2026 Long-Term Load Forecast Report confirms the trend of significant growth in electricity demand over the next 20 years but slightly decreases the expected load growth for near-term years compared with last year’s report, it said on Jan. 14.
The 2026 Long-Term Load Forecast Report anticipates lower peak demand in the near-term through 2032 due to updates to the electric vehicle and economic forecasts as well as improved vetting of requested adjustments for data centers and large loads.
For example, the updated load forecast for summer 2026 predicts a drop in peak electricity use attributed to large loads (-0.7%), economic activity (-0.5%) and EVs (-0.1%) compared to the PJM 2025 Long-Term Load Forecast Report.
“We appreciate the work that the load-serving entities, including our member utilities, have done to help us better understand and predict how data center demand will show up on the system and when,” said Jason Connell, Vice President – Planning. “This will help us with important decisions to be made on how best to integrate these large energy users, because the growth rate remains higher than anything we have seen in recent decades.”
Summer, Winter Peak Expectations
According to the report, released Jan. 14, PJM expects its summer peak to climb about 85,000 MW, to over 241,000 MW, over the next 15 years. The record summer peak for the PJM footprint was 166,929 MW in 2006.
The 2025 report had predicted that peak load for summer 2025 would be approximately 154,000 MW under normal peak conditions; the actual load came in at over 161,000 MW due to a June heat wave that led to a spike in energy demand.
While winter peaks will remain slightly lower than the summer, the 2026 report continues to show winter closing the gap in peak electricity use, estimated at nearly 224,000 MW by 2041.
PJM’s record-high winter peak occurred on Jan. 22, 2025, when PJM served an average hourly load of approximately 143,336 MW. Current generating capacity in PJM is approximately 182,000 MW.
Summer Peak Load Growth
The annualized growth rate for the summer peak is projected to average 3.6% per year over the next 10 years and 2.4% over the next 20 years. For perspective on how data centers have impacted the long-term outlook, the 10-year average annual growth rate estimated in the 2021 Long-Term Load Forecast was 0.3% per year, less than one-tenth the current forecasted annual growth rate.
The summer peak is forecasted to be approximately 222,000 MW in 2036, a 10-year increase of nearly 66,000 MW, and surpasses 253,000 MW in 2046, a 20-year increase of nearly 97,000 MW.
Annualized 10-year growth rates for individual zones within the PJM footprint range from 0.2% to 6.4%, with a median of 1.6%.
Winter Peak Load Growth
Winter peak load is projected to rise at an even greater rate than summer peak, an average 4.0% per year over the next 10-year period, and 2.7% over the next 20 years.
The PJM RTO winter peak load in 2035/2036 is forecasted to be nearly 250,000 MW and reaches approximately 237,000 MW in 2045/2046.
Annualized 10-year growth rates for individual zones range from 0.0% to 6.5%, with a median of 2.1%.
Improving the Forecast for Large Load Additions
PJM annually solicits information from its member electric distribution companies (EDCs) for large load shifts (either positive or negative) that are known to the EDCs but may be unknown to PJM and may not be picked up in its econometric models. PJM reviews the requests (PDF), gauging their significance, how likely they are to come to fruition and the risk of double-counting.
For the 2026 Long-Term Load Forecast, these include:
• Growth in data center load (AEP, ATSI, APS, BGE, COMED, Dayton, DQE, JCPL, METED, PECO, PEPCO, PL)
• Growth in data center load and a voltage optimization program (DOM)
• Growth in data center load and port electrification (PS)
• A peak shaving program that commenced in the 2023 Delivery Year (EKPC)
PJM, in collaboration with stakeholders, created and published a Load Adjustment Request Implementation (PDF) document to provide transparency in how PJM evaluates large load adjustment requests in the 2026 Long-Term Load Forecast.
Near-term forecast years are considered to be needing “firm” commitments such as Electric Service Obligation (ESO)/Construction Commitment (CC), while longer-term projects will be considered “non-firm” and will be derated because of their greater uncertainty. This distinction has brought large load adjustments down in the near-term forecast years compared with the 2025 Long-Term Load Forecast.
Further Consideration for Large Load Additions
During the recent Critical Issue Fast Path (CIFP) for Large Load Additions stakeholder process, PJM and stakeholders (including the states) discussed:
• Additional improvements, including a step for state regulatory authorities to review large load requests
• A requirement that load-serving entities inquire of customers whether service requests are duplicated elsewhere in or outside of PJM, to appropriately assess speculative or redundant proposals
• Consideration of financial security requirements from large load customers (or other responsible entities) for the capacity required to be purchased to serve their needs, whether such requirements arise from state law or retail tariffs
The PJM Board is expected to outline its determination of a path forward on the CIFP issues in the next few weeks.
The Long-Term Forecast Process
The report includes a 20-year long-term forecast of peak loads, net energy, load management, distributed solar generation, plug-in electric vehicles and battery storage for each PJM zone, region, locational deliverability area (LDA) and the total RTO. The long-term forecast is for planning purposes and is separate from the daily and weekly forecasts performed by PJM Operations to prepare for daily load changes.
The PJM Long-Term Load Forecast is constructed using 24 hourly models for each transmission zone. In each model, load is the dependent variable, considered alongside weather, calendar events, economic data and end-use variables. In the history used for the model, PJM starts with metered load and then reconstitutes total load with load-management addbacks, load drops associated with peak-shaving programs and distributed solar generation estimates.
This report presents an independent load forecast prepared by PJM staff. The load forecast process considers residential, commercial and industrial sectors, each with its own set of models and inputs, including input variables for end-use saturation and efficiency as well as for economic drivers.
Insights from this process, combined with data on historical weather, are the starting point for determining peak and energy forecasts. PJM staff then makes adjustments based on forecast growth in behind-the-meter solar generation, battery storage and plug-in EVs, and also considers information from electric distribution companies on non-modeled trends, such as data centers.
