Two separate reports recently released by the New York Independent System Operator "provide important insights into evolving challenges of maintaining reliability of the high voltage electric system as consumer demand increases and generation retires," the grid operator said on Oct. 14.
The NYISO’s third-quarter Short-Term Assessment of Reliability (STAR) studies electric system reliability over a five-year period from July 15, 2025, through July 15, 2030, and identifies reliability violations in New York City and Long Island beginning in the summer of 2026. The violations are driven by generator deactivations, increasing consumer demand, and transmission limitations. The STAR report is final.
LIPA has Taken a Number of Steps to Boost Reliability
The Long Island Power Authority and its board have already taken a number of steps to proactively boost reliability for the public power utility’s system.
Fitch Ratings in August 2025 noted that LIPA's power supply portfolio “is well diversified and comprises purchased capacity from units located on Long Island and elsewhere that comfortably meet the area's peak demand.”
“Plans to add sizable amounts of contracted offshore wind and solar capacities are expected by Fitch to further diversify the authority's portfolio and comply with New York State's clean energy goals. Capital spending is high at roughly $4.9 billion over the next five years; it will focus on improving system resilience and reliability and supporting modest load growth,” Fitch said.
And LIPA noted in its 2025 budget report that LIPA’s Board aims to achieve top 10% reliability among its peers while enhancing circuit conditions to ensure no customer experiences significantly worse reliability than the average.
The LIPA Board’s resiliency goal “focuses on countering the effects of climate change through multi-year initiatives designed to decrease the frequency and duration of outages following major storms,” the budget report said.
Since 2010, LIPA has committed a record $9.4 billion -- triple the investment rate from a decade ago. “This unprecedented investment is driving improvements in reliability, boosting resilience, and integrating cutting-edge system designs and technologies to deliver exceptional value to customers,” the report noted.
In December 2024, the LIPA Board announced a series of policy changes and strategic initiatives to facilitate underground transmission and distribution lines across Long Island and the Rockaways to enhance reliability and community resilience.
Comprehensive Reliability Plan
The 2025-2034 Comprehensive Reliability Plan (CRP), issued biennially, sets forth the plan to maintain a reliable electric grid over a ten-year planning period.
The CRP warns that the New York State electric system faces an era of profound reliability challenges driven by the convergence of three structural trends: the aging of the existing generation fleet; the rapid growth of large loads (e.g.: data centers and semiconductor manufacturing); and the increasing difficulty of developing new supply resources due to public policies, supply chain constraints and rising costs for equipment.
The CRP was issued in draft form and is expected to be final in November.
Both reports are issued publicly under the NYISO’s planning processes, which is approved by the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission.
The reliability needs identified by the STAR in New York City and Long Island are based on a deficiency in transmission security. Transmission security analysis tests the ability of the power system to withstand disturbances, such as electric short circuits or unanticipated loss of a generator or a transmission line, while continuing to supply and deliver electricity to consumers during peak demand when the system is stressed.
The finding of a reliability need initiates a process administered by the NYISO to bring reliability margins back to acceptable operating levels.
NYISO said it will begin the process immediately by working with the local utilities and the marketplace to identify and evaluate possible solutions. Transmission, generation, energy efficiency or a combination of each can qualify as solutions through the process.
Considering the unprecedented changes happening across the bulk electric system, the CRP uses several informational scenarios to examine the impacts of key risk factors and capture possible outcomes for grid planning purposes, the grid operator noted.
Major factors that influence the scenarios include aging generation, variable demand forecasts, weather variability, and ongoing delays in developing additional resources. The CRP also shows different scenarios of resource additions to demonstrate potential solutions to support long-term grid reliability.
