The PJM Interconnection recently released its annual summer assessment and predicts sufficient supply to meet summer electricity needs for the region it serves across 13 states and the District of Columbia under anticipated conditions.
PJM projects a non-diversified peak demand for electricity this summer at approximately 156,000 MW and has performed reliability studies at loads nearing 163,000 MW. PJM has more than 186,000 MW of installed generating capacity available to meet customer needs, with resources available in reserve to cover historically observed summer generation outage scenarios.
While its assessment shows that PJM is prepared to maintain reliability this summer, modeling of extreme scenarios indicates tightening reserve margins and the potential need to reduce load by deploying demand response in certain conditions.
PJM can deploy demand response by instructing customers who have agreed in advance to be temporarily interrupted in exchange for a capacity payment to reduce their load. This scenario could occur in the event of extraordinary electricity demand and high generator outages – an unlikely but possible set of circumstances, it said.
Following the lessons of Winter Storm Uri in early 2021, PJM models now incorporate more extreme scenarios that have no historical precedent, including the combination of multiple unlikely conditions occurring at the same time.
The risk to reserve margins this year is a result of higher expected generator outage rates based on recent trends, particularly during Winter Storm Elliott, coupled with hot summer weather that drives up demand for electricity. The National Weather Service predicts higher-than-normal temperatures this summer for most of the U.S., and particularly the East Coast and Gulf Coast.
PJM’s all-time, one-day highest power use was recorded in the summer of 2006 at 165,563 MW.
