The Northeast Power Coordinating Council’s annual reliability assessment forecasts the NPCC region will have an adequate supply of electricity this summer, NPCC said on May 3.
The overall NPCC coincident electricity summer peak demand is forecasted to be around 105,200 megawatts, which is slightly higher than last summer. A total capacity of about 163,300 MW is projected to be in place to meet electricity demand in the region.
Forecasts also indicate sufficient transmission capability and adequate capacity margins to meet peak demand and required operating reserves. NPCC’s spare operable capacity (over and above reserve requirements) this summer is estimated to range from approximately 7,200 MW to over 17,000 MW.
“Over 6,000 MW of estimated peak load reduction is reflected in the NPCC demand forecast due to expected behind-the-meter generation, such as rooftop solar, energy efficiency and other initiatives,” said Charles Dickerson, President and CEO of the NPCC. “In addition, planned area transmission improvements will provide for increased power system flexibility and reliability, as they are completed.”
New England, the state of New York and the Canadian Provinces of Ontario, Québec and the Maritimes are forecasted to have adequate supplies of electricity this summer.
Due to its winter peaking nature, Québec is expected to meet forecast electricity demand by a wide margin enabling transfers of surplus electricity supplies to other areas of the region, if needed.
The assessment considered a wide range of conditions including forecast demand uncertainty; unexpected generator plant outages; transmission constraints both between neighboring regions and within NPCC; the implementation of operating procedures; estimated impact of demand response programs; and additional capacity unavailability coupled with reduced transfer capabilities.
“Approximately 1,400 MW of new renewables resources is expected to be in-service over the course of the summer period, including both land-based and offshore wind generation,” said Phil Fedora, NPCC’s Chief Engineer and Vice President Reliability Services. “Noteworthy is the expected commercial operation of the first major offshore windfarm, connecting to Long Island.”
Throughout the summer, NPCC will continue to monitor the operating conditions on the bulk power system.
As part of these efforts, NPCC conducts daily and week-ahead calls between NPCC system operators and neighboring regions to communicate current operating conditions, coordinate planned maintenance, and facilitate the procurement of assistance under emergency conditions.
In addition, NPCC supports industry-wide reliability and security coordination efforts to promote communications, awareness, and information sharing.